Thursday, February 26, 2009
Monday, February 23, 2009
Saturday, February 21, 2009
chart S&P 500 might hit 680, fkli chart might hit 750 by using Fibonacci analysis
‘Dow Theory’ Says Worst Isn’t Over for U.S. Stocks as YRC Falls
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By Eric Martin and Cristina Alesci
Feb. 21 (Bloomberg) -- A 125-year-old method for forecasting the market is telling investors the worst isn’t over for stocks.
Dow Theory, which holds that simultaneous moves in industrial and transportation shares foreshadow economic activity, indicates the Dow Jones Industrial Average’s drop to a six-year low yesterday may presage more losses.
The Dow industrials slumped to 7,365.67 on concern the deepening recession will force the U.S. government to bail out banks. Adherents of Dow Theory say the 30-stock gauge will fall farther because the Dow Jones Transportation Average has slipped to the worst level since September 2003.
“When you have that confirmation in both legs, that’s clearly negative,” said Ryan Detrick, senior technical analyst at Schaeffer’s Investment Research in Cincinnati. “There’s some validity to Dow Theory.”
This week’s retreat left the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index, the benchmark for U.S. stocks, within 2.3 percent of breaking through its Nov. 20 low to the worst level since 1997.
Citigroup Inc. and Bank of America Corp. declined the most in the Dow this week, losing more than 31 percent, on concern shareholders will be wiped out through nationalization. General Motors Corp. had the third-biggest slump, losing 29 percent on concern about its solvency. General Electric Co. dropped 18 percent to $9.38, becoming the fifth stock in the average since last year to sink below $10.
“The direction of the market is clearly down,” said Richard Moroney, who manages $150 million at Hammond, Indiana- based Horizon Investment Services and edits the Dow Theory Forecasts newsletter. “We’re holding a lot more cash than we normally do.”
‘Clearly Down’
Dow Theory, created by Wall Street Journal co-founder Charles Dow in 1884, argues that transportation companies are harbingers of economic activity. The transportation gauge slipped below its November nadir in January and has kept retreating. YRC Worldwide Inc. and JetBlue Airways Corp. fell the most this week, losing more than 27 percent.
Dow Theory is showing that “the bear market is in force,” said Philip Roth, the New York-based chief technical analyst at Miller Tabak & Co. “It doesn’t tell you whether it’s going to last another year or another day. It isn’t a forecaster of magnitude, just direction.”
In November 2007, one month after the Dow industrials and S&P 500 surged to record highs, Dow Theory suggested the rally was over. The S&P 500 went on to tumble 38 percent in 2008, the most since 1937.
Bullish Strategists
The Dow Theory signal goes against all 10 Wall Street strategists tracked by Bloomberg, who on average project the S&P 500 will end the year at 1,059, a 38 percent gain from yesterday’s close of 770.05. Almost $800 billion in federal spending and the cheapest valuations in two decades will spur the rally, the strategists say.
The S&P 500 is a better indicator of the market’s direction because it has almost 17 times more companies than the Dow average and uses market value, not share prices, to determine company weightings, said Roger Volz, New York-based senior vice president at Hampton Securities Ltd. and a technical analyst since 1982.
The index would probably plunge to 681 should it fall below the 11-year-low of 752.44 reached in November, according to Volz. His chart-based techniques include Fibonacci analysis.
“I don’t think we get out of the woods for 14 months,” he said. “The destruction is severe.”
To contact the reporters on this story: Cristina Alesci in New York at calesci2@bloomberg.net; Eric Martin in New York at emartin21@bloomberg.net.
Thursday, February 19, 2009
Wednesday, February 18, 2009
Tuesday, February 17, 2009
Monday, February 16, 2009
Friday, February 13, 2009
Thursday, February 12, 2009
Wednesday, February 11, 2009
Tuesday, February 10, 2009
Friday, February 6, 2009
股票投资
股票投资
股市对态度正确的人是金矿，对态度错误的人是坟墓。那麽，什麽是股票投资的正道，又什麽是股票投资的“左道”？很简单“左道”就是在股市投机。“正道”就是从商业的角度，依据基本面进行投资。股票投资者如果一开始就对股市存着错误的观念，以为可以在股市快捷致富，那麽，他的下场，几乎肯定是悲惨的。如果你以为股市是个做无本生意的地方－－可以靠“对敲”致富，而且上了“对敲”的瘾，那麽，你已患上软骨症，永远站不起来。如果你存着一种想法：可以击败股市，那麽你是自讨苦吃，因为你已成为孙悟空，永远跳不出股市这个如来佛的手掌，最後必然是来也空空，去也空空。而导致“左道”投资者无法抬头的最主要原因，是因为股市的游戏，是“零数游戏”（ZERO SUM GAME），是因为不存在的价值，最终一定会消失无踪，是因为财富的创造，必须建立在价值的创造上。作为经济的一部份，作为商业的一环，股票价值不能无中生有。无中生有如果存在，也只能是昙花一现，－－晚上开花，太阳还没有升上来就枯萎了。股票市场，实在是个天才的发明，但是，演变到今天，已逐渐变质，成为最大的赌场－－大马百万的“股友”，美其名为“投资者”，实际上，绝大多数是“赌友”－－抱着“搏一搏”的心理进场，股票是筹码，跟它所代表的资产和业务脱节。“赌友”们的普遍态度是“管他是好股还是坏股，只要会起，就是好股”。大部份人不了解公司，也没有兴趣去研究，他们把重点放在股市，不投向公司，投向股价，不投向基本面。我目击数以万计的PN4/PN17公司的股东，亏掉了数百亿令吉的血汗钱，而其中绝大部份是散户。我发现散户们在股市一错再错－－屡战屡败。我为他们惋惜。
股市对态度正确的人是金矿，对态度错误的人是坟墓。那麽，什麽是股票投资的正道，又什麽是股票投资的“左道”？很简单“左道”就是在股市投机。“正道”就是从商业的角度，依据基本面进行投资。股票投资者如果一开始就对股市存着错误的观念，以为可以在股市快捷致富，那麽，他的下场，几乎肯定是悲惨的。如果你以为股市是个做无本生意的地方－－可以靠“对敲”致富，而且上了“对敲”的瘾，那麽，你已患上软骨症，永远站不起来。如果你存着一种想法：可以击败股市，那麽你是自讨苦吃，因为你已成为孙悟空，永远跳不出股市这个如来佛的手掌，最後必然是来也空空，去也空空。而导致“左道”投资者无法抬头的最主要原因，是因为股市的游戏，是“零数游戏”（ZERO SUM GAME），是因为不存在的价值，最终一定会消失无踪，是因为财富的创造，必须建立在价值的创造上。作为经济的一部份，作为商业的一环，股票价值不能无中生有。无中生有如果存在，也只能是昙花一现，－－晚上开花，太阳还没有升上来就枯萎了。股票市场，实在是个天才的发明，但是，演变到今天，已逐渐变质，成为最大的赌场－－大马百万的“股友”，美其名为“投资者”，实际上，绝大多数是“赌友”－－抱着“搏一搏”的心理进场，股票是筹码，跟它所代表的资产和业务脱节。“赌友”们的普遍态度是“管他是好股还是坏股，只要会起，就是好股”。大部份人不了解公司，也没有兴趣去研究，他们把重点放在股市，不投向公司，投向股价，不投向基本面。我目击数以万计的PN4/PN17公司的股东，亏掉了数百亿令吉的血汗钱，而其中绝大部份是散户。我发现散户们在股市一错再错－－屡战屡败。我为他们惋惜。
Thursday, February 5, 2009
Wednesday, February 4, 2009
Technical Trading Strategies candle
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Technical Trading Strategies
Technical analysts and traders believe that certain stock chart patterns and shapes are signals for profitable trading opportunities. Many professional and amateur traders claim that they consistently make trading profits by following those signals. In this chapter we introduce eight types of stock patterns and the corresponding trading strategies, that, according to our extensive historical tests, give the trader an advantage.
Candle Stick Trend Reversal
A candle stick chart is a good presentation of a stock’s momentum. On a candlestick chart, one can easily see the secession of up days, down days and sudden changes in the stock pattern. The following figure is an example of what is sometimes called "First Sunny Day", a typical buy pattern.
Figure 11. A Trend Reversal pattern. After a long, long decline, the stock suddenly goes up in significant magnitude. Furthermore, it closes much higher above its open. This "First Sunny Day" sends a short-term buy signal.
The trading strategy for a "First Sunny Day" pattern is to buy the stock and hold until it recovers the range lost by the recent secession of down days, or to cut losses if it drops back to the prior day's low. This pattern usually signals a very good profit-risk ratio.
Figure 12. This is a short-term Trend-Reversal pattern. After a long, long rise, the stock suddenly drops; its close is much lower than its open. This pattern hints that something has suddenly gone wrong with the stock. This so-called "Sudden Cloudy Day" pattern indicates one should sell the stock without delay.
In this example of the, "Sudden Cloudy Day"pattern, the trading strategy is to short the stock and hold it until it retraces the recent secession of up days or to cut losses if it breaks the previous day's high.
For longer-term trend-reversal patterns, we often look for the "Shooting Star"; as shown in the example above. We also look for the "T-Shape"which signals a bounce-back buy signal.
Figure 13. The stock price soared considerably in the past few days. At present, it shoots up, as if exhausting all its energy. This Shooting Star pattern hints that the market has lost confidence in the further potential of the stock, indicating a likely downturn.
Figure 14. The stock price dropped over several days. Presently, it drops precipitously, then bounces back to close near the open, forming a "T" shape. This may indicate that the market finally has finally decided the stock has dropped enough, with many bullish traders and investors coming to the rescue.
Technical analysts and traders believe that certain stock chart patterns and shapes are signals for profitable trading opportunities. Many professional and amateur traders claim that they consistently make trading profits by following those signals. In this chapter we introduce eight types of stock patterns and the corresponding trading strategies, that, according to our extensive historical tests, give the trader an advantage.
Candle Stick Trend Reversal
A candle stick chart is a good presentation of a stock’s momentum. On a candlestick chart, one can easily see the secession of up days, down days and sudden changes in the stock pattern. The following figure is an example of what is sometimes called "First Sunny Day", a typical buy pattern.
Figure 11. A Trend Reversal pattern. After a long, long decline, the stock suddenly goes up in significant magnitude. Furthermore, it closes much higher above its open. This "First Sunny Day" sends a short-term buy signal.
The trading strategy for a "First Sunny Day" pattern is to buy the stock and hold until it recovers the range lost by the recent secession of down days, or to cut losses if it drops back to the prior day's low. This pattern usually signals a very good profit-risk ratio.
Figure 12. This is a short-term Trend-Reversal pattern. After a long, long rise, the stock suddenly drops; its close is much lower than its open. This pattern hints that something has suddenly gone wrong with the stock. This so-called "Sudden Cloudy Day" pattern indicates one should sell the stock without delay.
In this example of the, "Sudden Cloudy Day"pattern, the trading strategy is to short the stock and hold it until it retraces the recent secession of up days or to cut losses if it breaks the previous day's high.
For longer-term trend-reversal patterns, we often look for the "Shooting Star"; as shown in the example above. We also look for the "T-Shape"which signals a bounce-back buy signal.
Figure 13. The stock price soared considerably in the past few days. At present, it shoots up, as if exhausting all its energy. This Shooting Star pattern hints that the market has lost confidence in the further potential of the stock, indicating a likely downturn.
Figure 14. The stock price dropped over several days. Presently, it drops precipitously, then bounces back to close near the open, forming a "T" shape. This may indicate that the market finally has finally decided the stock has dropped enough, with many bullish traders and investors coming to the rescue.
Tuesday, February 3, 2009
trader
You often hear traders say that it is easier to trade professionally with a company's’s capital than to trade on their own time with their own money. Normally, they might have financial planners manage their money or put it into mutual funds. This shows how traders actually tend to be more disciplined when dealing professionally with a company's’s money than they are when dealing with the loss and gain of their own money in the market. To be a successful trader, you need that professional calm!
One successful investor who made millions defined stock trading as gambling. To some extent it is true: both depend on common strategies and discipline. You need to know when to bet small and when to bet big, when to check, and when to quit. Although the stock market is vastly more complex and far more grounded in information variables than gambling, they both require that you exercise strict discipline, clear judgment, that you do your homework, and that you set firm goals and limits. Sometimes in trading, the most important work you can do is exercising patience, confidence, and discipline. You need to stay calm, keeping your mind clear and focused. When you make a bet on a price going up or down, your intuition needs to be well informed. You need to understand what your risk is (Risk Assessment), what the probability of winning is, how much damage you can incur if events go badly South! Sound like gambling? It is true in trading or investing that people tend to dream about how much money they are going to make, tending to ignore the down side.
Is your bet good or bad? Agreed, as in gambling, intuition does a lot of work. But in investing, intuition does not come from nowhere. Good intuition starts with good education and good psychological habits. When you begin to win, you can't think of yourself as a winner yet because if you lose caution and become greedy, you can lose your gain in an instant. More importantly, if you should happen to lose, you can't let yourself conclude that a single loss makes you a loser: it won't, so long as you keep to your strategy, like a professional, and cut losses promptly. If you vainly cherish your hope that a stock will bounce back up after a setback, you may end up losing more than 50% of your money, when otherwise you could easily have closed off your position at -10% and kept costs to a minimum. Losing money can be very upsetting, but you need to be consistent and not quit the game easily. Learn to use a loss as a lesson, just as professional traders (or gamblers) do, and determine why you lost. In this way, you maximize your chance to become a better warrior. You should keep a close record of your trades, noting decision strategy, variables. Be systematic, just like a photography student who makes notes about each exposure to learn from inevitable mistakes. Talk with your friends and listen closely to trading tips, but in the end, you have to make your own judgments. Believe in yourself. If your next pick ends up being wrong, that may mean you haven't yet done sufficient homework on that stock to realize a win.
Homework is the most important thing to do before any trade. By doing your homework, you complete a definite set of steps that will guide you toward a successful outcome. First of all, set your market goals: Do you want to trade long-term (from one year to many years), mid-term (two months to a year), or short-term (every week, even every day)? Then, once you've set them, stay true to goal boundaries. For example, traders who set their sights long term may end up losing money by indulging in a tempting but ill-prepared short-term plunge.
After you've set your goal, you'll need to concentrate on specific industry sectors. By specializing in a couple of different sectors you avoid putting all your eggs into a single basket. Within each sector, choose stocks you want to invest in. Ask yourself questions such as, Why do I want to invest in this stock? Is it because its rating of strength relative to that of the industry is very high? Does it have leading-edge products or technologies that I believe are going to fly? Or does the stock follow the technical patterns very well? In other words, does the stock chart conform to a reliable and understandable model? Positive responses to these questions can help you feel comfortable in placing a stock on your short list of candidates.
One successful investor who made millions defined stock trading as gambling. To some extent it is true: both depend on common strategies and discipline. You need to know when to bet small and when to bet big, when to check, and when to quit. Although the stock market is vastly more complex and far more grounded in information variables than gambling, they both require that you exercise strict discipline, clear judgment, that you do your homework, and that you set firm goals and limits. Sometimes in trading, the most important work you can do is exercising patience, confidence, and discipline. You need to stay calm, keeping your mind clear and focused. When you make a bet on a price going up or down, your intuition needs to be well informed. You need to understand what your risk is (Risk Assessment), what the probability of winning is, how much damage you can incur if events go badly South! Sound like gambling? It is true in trading or investing that people tend to dream about how much money they are going to make, tending to ignore the down side.
Is your bet good or bad? Agreed, as in gambling, intuition does a lot of work. But in investing, intuition does not come from nowhere. Good intuition starts with good education and good psychological habits. When you begin to win, you can't think of yourself as a winner yet because if you lose caution and become greedy, you can lose your gain in an instant. More importantly, if you should happen to lose, you can't let yourself conclude that a single loss makes you a loser: it won't, so long as you keep to your strategy, like a professional, and cut losses promptly. If you vainly cherish your hope that a stock will bounce back up after a setback, you may end up losing more than 50% of your money, when otherwise you could easily have closed off your position at -10% and kept costs to a minimum. Losing money can be very upsetting, but you need to be consistent and not quit the game easily. Learn to use a loss as a lesson, just as professional traders (or gamblers) do, and determine why you lost. In this way, you maximize your chance to become a better warrior. You should keep a close record of your trades, noting decision strategy, variables. Be systematic, just like a photography student who makes notes about each exposure to learn from inevitable mistakes. Talk with your friends and listen closely to trading tips, but in the end, you have to make your own judgments. Believe in yourself. If your next pick ends up being wrong, that may mean you haven't yet done sufficient homework on that stock to realize a win.
Homework is the most important thing to do before any trade. By doing your homework, you complete a definite set of steps that will guide you toward a successful outcome. First of all, set your market goals: Do you want to trade long-term (from one year to many years), mid-term (two months to a year), or short-term (every week, even every day)? Then, once you've set them, stay true to goal boundaries. For example, traders who set their sights long term may end up losing money by indulging in a tempting but ill-prepared short-term plunge.
After you've set your goal, you'll need to concentrate on specific industry sectors. By specializing in a couple of different sectors you avoid putting all your eggs into a single basket. Within each sector, choose stocks you want to invest in. Ask yourself questions such as, Why do I want to invest in this stock? Is it because its rating of strength relative to that of the industry is very high? Does it have leading-edge products or technologies that I believe are going to fly? Or does the stock follow the technical patterns very well? In other words, does the stock chart conform to a reliable and understandable model? Positive responses to these questions can help you feel comfortable in placing a stock on your short list of candidates.
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